It’s a rare thing for all three promoted teams to go straight back down the season after coming up from the second tier. It’s only happened once previously in the Premier League – back in 1997/98. Therefore it’s likely one of Cardiff, Hull or Crystal Palace will survive. But who has the best chance? Ian Bendelow gets out his crystal ball…
Teams who come up from the Championship can find themselves woefully ill equipped to cope with the rigours of Premier League football. Just ask Sunderland fans in their ill-fated 2005/2006 season, in which they ‘amassed’ a grand total of 15 points. Determined not to be out-done, Derby County smashed this record two seasons later by posting an impressive 11-point total.
For both it was their first season in the league. Billy Davies, who was manager of Derby when they went up remarked that they were way ahead of schedule in their top-flight ambitions, didn’t expect to get promoted and would just give it their best shot. Mick McCarthy at Sunderland must have looked at the six-figure budget he was handed by Bob Murray and have thought“oh dear”. And then he got on the phone to Alan Stubbs.
It’s not always the case that teams struggle. Newcastle, on their first foray into the Premier League under the stewardship of Kevin Keegan formed the nucleus of a team that would propel the club from a yo-yo club to European contenders. In their first season up, the swashbuckling Magpies with stars such as Ruel Fox, Andy Cole and Peter Beardsley finished third with 77 points. Nottingham Forest repeated the trick a couple of seasons later under the guidance of Frank Clark, and the steely leadership of Stuart Pearce.
There are of course requirements for a team to be successful.
First and foremost it’s the thing that makes all clubs to differing extents tick. Money. In the case of teams coming up though, it is all about spending that money wisely. Few will go out and spend tens of millions of pounds on players, in an attempt to buy their way to survival. Many will not spend at all (see Reading last year), and just be happy to be richer for the experience.
Cardiff are currently best equipped to survive. A strong squad, with players who had the knowledge they were the best in the division last year means they can be confident of giving it a good go. They will need to make improvements of course, but arguably this could be largely aesthetic ones. Adel Taraabt perhaps. Palace, on the other hand look like they might spend a bit – but perhaps their wisest move would be to bring back Zaha on loan. The man quite simply made Palace’s team, he didn’t just add to it.
Hull have to spend big time. From top to bottom their squad has players who can keep it tight and nick a goal in the Championship, but when required to grasp the nettle in the Premier League will find themselves completely out of their depth. If Bruce feels that players like Adam Boyd and Ahmed Elmohamady are the answer, then he is sadly mistaken.
Of course the quality of their managers has a bearing too. The brooding, considered approach of Malky Mackay, the safety-first approach of Steve Bruce or the ADHD bonkers child-in-a-box style of Ian Holloway all have their merits. If you had to choose one of these three to keep you up, The Centre Circle would wager that Steve Bruce would have the best chance on paper. He has experience of working on a small budget with an average team, and has succeeded (ironically when given money at Sunderland he failed). Mackay is too inexperienced for some and Holloway too mad to be considered the best equipped. Although this doesn't mean he is in charge of the team most likely to survive.
However the one factor which stands above all others for newcomers to the league is the importance of having a good striker. A talisman, a focal point, someone who can drive a team forward. There are exceptions to this, but a good striker is usually the difference between staying up or doing down. Newcastle had Andy Cole first time around then in more recent times Andy Carroll helped them establish safety for a second time in the Premier league. Southampton relied on Ricky Lambert, and Norwich had Grant Holt. Sunderland announced their arrival in the Premier League with a bang with Kevin Phillips scoring 30 goals in his maiden season.
There are of course other factors. Luck, team spirit and staying injury free can help. These can all be offset by having a good squad depth, and knowing when to rotate your squad to the full effect.
All promoted teams, with a few exceptions can arguably produce a run of form through part of a season. Sustaining this throughout a campaign is difficult, but necessary to be able to stay up. Blackpool and Hull were superb in the first half of their maiden top flight seasons, before falling woefully away after the turn of the year. Blackpool of course went down on the final day, with Hull surviving by the skin of their teeth.
It looks to The Centre Circle like it will be Palace and Hull for the drop at the minute. For the former, it’s not because of the signings they will make, but who they have lost this summer. Hollaway’s cavalier, live or die attitude that served him well at Blackpool will see them go down fighting. The announcement of plans to revamp Selhurst Park suggests they won’t have much to spend and Palace are looking at a long term vision for the club not just overnight success. For Hull, who played a turgid, dull brand of football all season under Bruce in the Championship, reek of a disaster waiting to happen. The owner has promised money and it will all depend on how Bruce spends it. Will he use his eye for talent like he did at Wigan or assemble a disaster of a squad like he did at Sunderland.
~Ian Bendelow
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